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Wednesday, October 21, 2009

The Iowa Republican: Christian conservatives forcing presidential candidates to skip the caucuses? Hardly

Excerpted from this post at The Iowa Republican

In addition to the article about the growing possibility that Mitt
Romney may skip the 2012 Iowa Caucuses which appeared on this website
yesterday, Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic also wrote a story about
lessons learned in Iowa during the 2008 caucuses. The point that
Ambinder makes in his article is that, unless you are beloved by
conservative Christians, candidates would be better off skipping the
first in the nation caucuses. These types of articles are nothing new.
It just seems as if they are occurring much earlier than in previous
years. The problem I have with articles like Ambinder's is that the
data doesn't back up the claim his story makes. We all know that Mike
Huckabee won the 2008 caucuses, but he didn't win it with 50 percent
of the vote. He won with less than 35 percent. After reading stories
like this, one would think that more establishment candidates like
Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Rudy Giuliani have no
base of support in Iowa. Yet, those four candidates combined made up
55 percent of the total vote in the 2008 Iowa caucuses.

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