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Thursday, May 28, 2009

John Deeth Blog: Counting the vote on Sotomayor

Excerpted from this post at John Deeth Blog

My first bet on the Sotomayor nomination was, she gets confirmed
80-20. Now that I think it through, I'm guessing more like 70-30. I
looked at the Senate roster and I just can't think of 20 Republicans
who'll vote for her. Traditionally, the President got the man (always
a man) he wanted for the Supreme Court. There were exceptions, to be
sure, like the Fortas-Haynsworth-Carswell trifecta of failure in 1968
and 1969. But it wasn't until Bork and Thomas that the modern high
stakes circus atmosphere of confirmations became more or less
permanent. The Dems will be unanimous, including the occasionally
unreliables (Ben Nelson). ... Sotomayor can cross anyone off the list
who either has national ambitions (DeMint, Ensign, Thune) or is
worried about a primary back home (Vitter, Murkowski, Bob Bennett of
Utah, maybe even McCain?). Grassley was a no vote in Sotomayor in 1998
and my guess is he's more worried about tending to his base than he is
about the general election.

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