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Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Bleeding Heartland: The paradox of the 2010 Senate race

Excerpted from this post at Bleeding Heartland

Nate Silver is handicapping the 2010 U.S. Senate races at
Fivethirtyeight.com and had this to say about Iowa's seat, held by
five-term incumbent Chuck Grassley: "Grassley will be 77 in 2010 and
could retire, in which case the race probably leans Democrat. Absent a
retirement, a kamikaze mission by someone like Tom Vilsack against the
popular incumbent is unlikely to succeed." ... Perhaps "kamikaze
mission" is too strong a phrase, but we need to acknowledge that Tom
Vilsack or any other Democrat would be a serious underdog against
Grassley. Yes, Iowa now has far more registered Democrats than
Republicans (about 106,000 more, last I heard), but Grassley has
always benefited from a strong crossover vote. Grassley will face
substantial pressure not to retire in 2010, in part because several
other Republican-held Senate seats are likely to be vulnerable.

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Mike Schramm
Andy Szal

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