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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Coralville Courier: IEM within less than half percentage point in presidential race prediction

Excerpted from this post at Coralville Courier

With all the votes counted, the Iowa Electronic Markets predicted the
final vote count in this year's presidential election to within a half
percentage point. Prices on the IEM's Vote Share Market predicted that
Barack Obama would receive 53.55 percent of the two-party presidential
popular vote, and John McCain would receive 46.45. After the ballots
were counted, Obama received 53.2 percent of the vote, and McCain
received 46.8 percent, leaving an average error per contract of only
.3 percent. The average absolute error by public opinion polls,
meanwhile, was 1.2 percent. But Tom Rietz, a finance professor at the
University of Iowa's Tippie College of Business and a founder of the
IEM, said the IEM traders saw Obama's win even before anyone knew who
the two parties' nominees would be.

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