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Thursday, November 20, 2008

Bleeding Heartland: Iowa now the best bellwether state

Excerpted from this post at Bleeding Heartland

Josh Goodman alerted me to this piece he wrote for
"Move Over Missouri, Iowa Is the New Bellwether State." John McCain
appears likely to take Missouri's 11 electoral votes, which would be
the first time since 1956 that the state did not vote for the winner
of the presidential election. However, Goodman argues that Missouri
has not been the best bellwether for the last few cycles. Even though
it voted for the winner each time through 2004, Missouri has steadily
trended more Republican in relation to the national popular vote.
Goodman then lists "the five states that have come closest to matching
the national popular vote in each election since 1988." ... Guess what
he found? "Iowa is the only state that has been one of the top five
bellwethers in four of the last five elections. The only year that it
doesn't make the list is 1996, when it was sixth -- and only off by
1.82 points."


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Mike Schramm
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