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Monday, October 27, 2008

Bleeding Heartland: How many Iowa counties will Obama win?

Excerpted from this post at Bleeding Heartland

Swing State Project has become one of my favorite blogs this year.
They publish so much detailed information and analysis about the
Congressional races. People also cross-post some fascinating work
related to the presidential election. Swing State Project user Mark
wrote this piece about "Detailed County Predictions for the
Presidential Race." Click over to read his predictions for all 50
states. Here's his take on Iowa: "Iowa -- Even when narrowly losing
Iowa, Kerry still won 32 of Iowa's 99 counties." ... I take it as a
given that Obama will not lose any county where John Kerry beat George
W. Bush. Obama's ground game is light-years ahead of Kerry's, and the
GOP ground troops are not nearly as motivated to GOTV for McCain as
they were for Bush. Obama is likely to win a lot more swing counties
in central Iowa than Kerry did.

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