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Friday, September 19, 2008

Bleeding Heartland: No, Obama and McCain are not tied in Iowa

Excerpted from this post at Bleeding Heartland

The Big Ten Battleground Poll released today shows Barack Obama and
John McCain virtually tied in Iowa, with Obama at 42.7 percent and
McCain at 42 percent when leaners are not added, and Obama and McCain
both at 44.8 percent with leaners. I am not buying it. It's not just
that Selzer and Associates, which has an excellent track record in
Iowa, released a poll four days ago showing Obama ahead 52-40. It's
not just that CNN/Time released a poll two weeks ago showing Obama
ahead 55-40. It's the fact that according to a commenter at MyDD who
has dug into the methodology, the Big Ten Battleground polls did not
weight the data according to turnout projections.

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