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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

John Deeth Blog: Obama Leads Iowa Electronic Markets on Pennsylvania Primary Eve

Excerpted from this post at John Deeth Blog

Barack Obama is maintaining his lead over Hillary Clinton in Iowa
Electronic Market (IEM) trading on the eve of the Pennsylvania
Democratic primary. As of 9:00 Monday morning, Obama shares were
trading at 75 cents, meaning traders give the Illinois senator a 75
percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. Clinton shares were
going for 21 cents. Obama has held the lead since Super Tuesday on
Feb. 5. In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy
and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real
money. Nomination markets are winner-take-all; winning shares pay a
dollar and losing shares are worthless.


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