The Demo Memo: Who Will Win the Iowa Caucus?
Excerpted from this post at The Demo Memo
Latest Iowa Poll Shows Obama Lead, But Don't Get Fooled... The latest
Des Moines Register poll shows a widening lead for Barack Obama, and
will be the last poll released by the Register before the Iowa Caucus.
It is undoubtedly good news for the Obama campaign, but it is also a
cautionary tale. AT THIS TIME IN 2004, Howard Dean was polling number
one. By caucus night, he came in a dismal third place and was out of
the race little more than a month later. Obama's situation is much the
same. Obama's support is what's known in campaign circles as "soft
support." His supporters are mostly under 35, the group that is most
likely not to caucus.