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Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Iowa Voice: Another Iowa Poll, Another Romney Win

Excerpted from this post at Iowa Voice
This new poll at Strategic Vision shows Mitt Romney leading in Iowa with 20%. Everyone who reads this site knows I'm very skeptical when it comes to polls, but I have said, time and time again, that when you get a bunch of polls showing you the same thing, then you can start to plot a trend. I think we've established the trend. The question is, though, what is his real margin? We've seen a poll with him at 30%, one showing him at 19%, and now this one showing him at 20%. Real Clear Politics has Romney leading Iowa at 21.3% (that's his average across several polls). But Giuliani still leads across the nation, with an average of 27.4% across seven different polls. So clearly, Romney leading in Iowa isn't helping him in other places. I have to admit, and I've said so in a couple of other posts, that I have been leaning slightly towards Romney*. He's been explaining his "flip-flops" mostly to my satisfaction, and that will go a long way for most conservative voters. Whether or not it will be enough, I'm not sure.

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Mike Schramm
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