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Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Bleeding Heartland: Misreading 2004

Excerpted from this post at Bleeding Heartland

Many people have taken the 2004 Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary results as proof positive that the candidate winning here will develop enough momentum to carry him or her through the entire nominating process. While that obviously happened with John Kerry's dramatic turnaround in New Hampshire following his win here, it is by no means a rule. Historically, Iowa and New Hampshire have almost always differed in their choices. Not counting sitting Presidents or Vice Presidents, Jimmy Carter was the last time that Iowa and New Hampshire agreed on anyone for either Democrats or Republicans (and technically Iowa voted for Undeclared over Carter). If anyone other than Kerry had won the Iowa caucus in 2004, that streak would almost certainly have remained intact. No, what 2004 taught us was that soft support in New Hampshire never really goes away.

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Mike Schramm
Andy Szal

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