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Monday, December 04, 2006

Political Forecast: 2008: Will Hillary be in Iowa?

Excerpted from this post at Political Forecast
A lot of speculation has emerged in the last few days about whether or not Hillary Clinton is actually going to run in the Iowa Caucuses or if she'll just skip the state entirely. Part of the issue has arisen because of Sen. Barack Obama's amazing rock-star rise to potential presidential candidate over the past few weeks as he consults and tests the waters. The other part of the consideration has come about because of Tom Vilsack's announcement which makes some pundits say that Iowa will automatically be won by Vilsack (and any pundit who says that only lends credibility to the belief that the punditocracy in America doesn't know s--t) and Clinton can just focus on the other early states since Iowa won't matter anymore. Both ideas, in my opinion, are almost worthless considerations. The real important thing to discuss is whether or not Hillary Clinton can survive the primary process. She's the presumed front-runner and that's never a good position to be in this early in the race. That means that you have to meet every expectation set before you. And the reality of the situation, as discussed earlier this week by Chuck Todd, shows that Clinton faces a lot of potential challenges in any kind of primary run.

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Mike Schramm
Andy Szal

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