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Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Political Forecast: IA-03: Case study - How Leonard Boswell was Saved by the Democratic Wave

Excerpted from this post at Political Forecast
Starting in June of 2006, Chuck Todd of the National Journal began listing Leonard Boswell's 3rd CD seat in Iowa as one of his top 30 seats most likely to change partisan control. ... By Monday, November 6th, the day before Election Day, Todd released his final rankings—of the 60 congressional seats most likely to change hands—and Boswell's seat was not listed. ... the ultimate conclusion appears that both Congressman Boswell and his Republican opponent, Jeff Lamberti, ran strong campaigns but the national mood against Republicans and their years of leadership prompted a strong Democratic message across the nation as well as anti-Republican sentiment thanks to Congressional scandals involving sex and ethics, as well as the war in Iraq. ... The strength of the parties' involvement in media buys and attacks against their opponents shows just how much of a role the parties will continue to play in very competitive races.

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Mike Schramm
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